Explain how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the migration component of sub-national population estimation in England and Wales.

The number of marks available for each question is clearly marked.

N.B. Presentation matters – all graphs and tables included in your assignment should be numbered, given full titles and clearly labelled, and include the data source.

Part 1

  1. National population structure (age should be grouped into 5 year age groups)

a) Present a population pyramid, dependency ratios and age-specific sex ratios for GERMANY (using data for 2021 sourced from the International Population Database). Outputs should be fully labelled with notes provided to explain definitions and sources where appropriate. (15 points) USE WEBSITE to download Germany data in excel format


b) Describe how you would expect the size and population structure of this country to look in 20 years time. Your answer should make reference to the current population structure and your reasoned assumptions of likely trends in the components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration) inferred from the current pyramid. (6 points)

c) Discuss one policy challenge presented by the likely changes to the population structure you described and a possible solution in terms of population policy. (4 points)

  1. Sub-national population data

a) Explain how England and Wales sub-national population estimates are derived. Your answer should include reference to the original sources, not the NOMIS website. (6 points

b) Explain how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the migration component of sub-national population estimation in England and Wales. (3 points)

Part 2

  1. Period fertility

a) Calculate period measures of fertility to describe and compare the level and age pattern of fertility between England and Wales in 2019 and germany (use the most recent data available from the DHS Statcomplier for your country of choice). Present a table or plot of Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs) and Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) (20 points)

b) With reference to the background and proximate determinants of fertility, suggest reasons for the differences in fertility between the two countries described in question a). (5 points)

  1. Cohort fertility

a) For your country of choice (Germany), use Cohort Parity Progression Ratios (CPPRs) to calculate the Cohort Total Fertility Rate (CTFR). (5 points)

b) Explain why the value for the CTFR is different to the Period Total Fertility Rate (PTFR) you calculated for your country in question 1. (5 points)

Part 3

  1. Mortality

a) Compare the differences in mortality between England and Wales, Camden and one local authority of your choice in 2019. You should present tables or plots Crude death rates (CDRs), Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and indirectly standardised death rates for males and females. Your answer should include an explanation of the need for age standardisation when making this comparison. (20 points)

  1. Life tables

a) Using evidence from the life table functions ndx and ex, summarise the main differences in mortality by sex between England and Wales in 2019 and a country of your choice (use the most recent data available from WHO Global Health Observatory data repository for the country of your choice). Present a table or plot of life table functions ndx and ex for males and females. (8 points)

b) Explain why the life expectancy values presented in a) should be interpreted and compared with caution. (3 points)

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