# Materials Analysis

Assigned: September 21, 2021

Due: October 5, 2021

Late assignments will be penalized by 10% per 24 hours.

The average annual temperature, in Ontario, has increased by 1.4°C over the last 60 years, and

models suggest that by 2050 the average annual temperature could increase by an additional 2.5°C

to 3.7°C (from baseline average 1961-1990) (MOECC, 2011). It is, therefore, likely that climate

change will have profound impact on the agricultural system in Ontario. Research has shown that

the growing season has been getting longer and warmer over most areas of agricultural land in

Canada. Ontario is home to commercial hog, dairy and beef cattle farms, cash crops such as

soybeans and corn, vegetables and fruit. Warmer temperatures and a longer growing season

could benefit many crops including corn, soybeans, forages and horticultural crops, but

climate change could pose significant risks including changes in drought frequency and

severity, shifts in the timing of precipitation and changes in storm intensity present risks to

production. In addition, climate change could negatively affect farm production and profitability

through changes in agricultural pests, invasive species, weeds and diseases. For the agricultural

sector, in addition to adopting appropriate farming methods/crops, economic initiatives could be

considered to limit the financial risks that these weather conditions may produce.

Problem: Considering the above, develop an agro-climatology for agricultural production in

Ontario for your assigned crop using the climatological data set. Identify the major factors that

could affect production of your crop in a changing climate including the climate change itself.

You should pay attention to the following:

1. Understand the current state of knowledge about the production of your assigned crop in Ontario by doing a literature review (try to find and read at least 5 articles/reports).
2. The next step is to figure out the Growing Degree Days (GDD) for production of your crop in your assigned location, which can be directly linked to the climate change.

The GDD equation is calculated as follows:

𝐷𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑦𝐺𝐷𝐷 = 𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥 + 𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛

2 − 𝑇𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒

Tmax = the daily maximum air temperature

Tmin = the daily minimum air temperature

Tbase = the GDD base temperature for the organism being monitored

2. Under a changing climate identify and explain the factors that will affect production of your crop in a significant way by including the important physical, societal, and

economic issues tied to the agro-climatology of your crop. (hint: literature review and

1. Do not forget to look for solution to the problem and suggest some.

Finally, use your background knowledge to look into the problem from a holistic

perspective, and do not hesitate to ask questions, which will lead you to solve the problem

in a more effective way.

– 10 pages maximum but could be less (including Tables and Graphs)

– Name, student number, course code on title page

– Page numbers (preferably at the bottom of page)

– Double spaced; standard 1” margins

– 12 pt (Times New Roman, Garamond) OR 10 pt (Arial) font

References:

Environment Canada. (2014) Climate Station Database.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/index_e.html#access

Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food. (2013). Historical Provincial Estimates by Crop,

1981-2012. Accessed from:

http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/stats/crops/estimate_hist_metric.htm

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